which team can qualify in main round of cplt20

Northern Knights win their last match, against Mumbai Indians, they are through to the tournament proper having won all their qualifiers.

If

If Northern Knights lose their final match, they need Southern Express to beat Lahore Lions for clear passage into the next round. If Lions win, though, then it comes down to net run rate among Knights, Lions and Mumbai Indians. Still, Knights will have a big advantage (since their net run rate of +2.684 going into the final round is far superior to Mumbai Indians' +0.498 and Lions' -1.496). If Lions score 160 and beat Express by a margin of about 60 runs, and Knights lose by 79 runs or more (after Mumbai Indians post 160), Knights will slip below the currently third-placed Lahore Lions. Knights have the added advantage of playing after Lions on Tuesday, so they will know exactly what they need to do.

Mumbai Indians' scenarios

If Mumbai Indians win their final match, against Northern Knights, they will be hoping that Southern Express had beaten Lahore Lions earlier in the day - that would mean they go through to the tournament proper without net run rate coming into the equation.

However, if Lions had also won, then net run rate will come into it. While Mumbai Indians do enjoy the advantage of a far superior net run rate going into the final round (+0.498 to Lions' -1.496, which can be further boosted should they beat Knights), Lions could leapfrog Mumbai Indians should they beat Express by a margin of 100 runs after posting 160, and correspondingly, Mumbai win by a margin of 21 runs or less (after scoring 160 against Knights). Again, Mumbai Indians hold the advantage of playing the later game on Tuesday, meaning they begin their game already knowing the qualification equation.

If Mumbai Indians lose their final match, to Northern Knights, they need Southern Express to beat Lahore Lions. In this scenario, Mumbai Indians cannot afford to lose their match very badly against Knights, or they may be in danger of their net run rate (+0.498, before the game) slipping below Southern Express' (-1.670, before the game). Given the difference in net run rate, though, this is rather unlikely; Express will leapfrog Mumbai, if Express score 160 and beat Lions by 30 runs, and Mumbai subsequently lose by 34 runs or more (after Knights post 160).

Lahore Lions' scenarios

If Lahore Lions beat Southern Express and Mumbai Indians lose to Northern Knights, Knights and Lions go through.

If Mumbai Indians and Lahore Lions win their matches, three teams will be on two wins each, meaning it comes down to net run rate among Knights, Lions and Mumbai Indians. In this scenario, Knights (unless they are smashed by Mumbai Indians) and Mumbai have the advantage, since their net run rates are far superior to Lions'. If Lions are to make the main drawn instead of Knights, they will need to win by about 50 runs (after scoring 160) and Knights will have to lose by at least 87 runs, after Mumbai post 160. Lions are at a further disadvantage: they play before Mumbai Indians on Tuesday, meaning they will not know what the exact equation.

If Lahore Lions lose to Southern Express and Mumbai Indians beat Northern Knights, Mumbai Indians and Knights go through without net run rate coming into the equation.

Southern Express' scenarios

If Southern Express lose to Lahore Lions, they will go out of the tournament without having won a match.

If Southern Express win, to stand any chance of progressing, they'll need Mumbai Indians to lose to Northern Knights by a big margin, even while beating Lions by a big margin themselves. If Mumbai Indians lose to Knights by 30 runs (after Knights post 160) and Express beat Lions by 33 runs or more (if Express post 160), Express will move into second place. They will not have the cushion of knowing the equation before they play, though, as their match will be played before Mumbai Indians'.

Washout scenarios

If the Southern Express v Lahore Lions game is washed out, Lahore Lions will progress to the next stage only if Northern Knights beat Mumbai Indians.

If the Mumbai Indians v Northern Knights game is washed out, Knights will qualify and Southern Express will be eliminated. If Lions had beaten Express earlier, Lions will progress, otherwise Mumbai Indians will.